The United States is holding its breath as a legal earthquake threatens to fundamentally reshape the White House and the political future of Donald Trump. No longer a matter of vague hypothesis, a unanimous ruling from a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit has dealt a “fatal blow” to the shield of power Trump has meticulously constructed. This ruling not only rejects his claim of absolute immunity but also flings open the door to a scenario the President himself fears: a third impeachment.

For years, Donald Trump’s core legal strategy rested on a single, unwavering belief: that a sitting President possesses absolute immunity for all actions taken while in office. His lawyers even shocked the court by arguing that a President could theoretically order the assassination of a political rival and remain immune from prosecution unless first impeached and convicted by the Senate.

However, the D.C. Circuit has definitively dismantled this illusion. In a unanimous decision, the judges declared: “No President has blanket immunity for any and all criminal acts they might commit while they are in office”. The court affirmed that the Constitution does not grant the President a “get out of jail free card” simply because they sit behind the Resolute Desk.

While the Supreme Court previously established broad immunity for “official acts,” this new appellate ruling draws a critical red line. The court maintains that:

• Attempting to overturn the results of a lost election is not a protected official act.

• Pressuring state officials to “find” non-existent votes is not an official act.

• Organizing “fake electors” to submit fraudulent certificates falls entirely outside the scope of legal protection.

This means that Special Counsel Jack Smith’s federal cases remain fully viable and are poised to move toward criminal trials—an unprecedented event for a sitting President in American history.

Donald Trump is under no illusions regarding these developments. In a meeting held on the anniversary of January 6 earlier this month, he bluntly warned House Republicans that if they lose control of Congress in 2026, he fully expects to be impeached.

This is an extraordinary admission from a sitting President. He understands that the only barrier between him and new articles of impeachment is the protection of his political allies in the House. If Democrats regain the majority, they will possess the full legal arsenal—backed by court rulings—to initiate impeachment proceedings based on evidence previously shielded by claims of immunity.

Trump’s anxiety is clearly reflected in data from political prediction markets. Prior to this ruling, the odds of a Trump impeachment in 2026 sat at roughly 13%. Following the decision, that figure surged to a staggering 50% chance that Trump will face another impeachment trial before January 1, 2028.

Political investors now view this as a coin flip—meaning the chances of impeachment are effectively equal to the chances of avoiding it. This is a highly volatile signal for the stability of this term, suggesting that “smart money” is betting on the failure of Trump’s defensive shield.

One of the most complex undercurrents is the shifting attitude of Republican lawmakers. Publicly, they continue to support Trump to avoid the wrath of his loyal base. However, behind closed doors, discussions are intensifying over whether Trump is becoming a “legal liability” too heavy for the party to carry.

If the 2026 election results are disastrous, some GOP members may view impeachment as an “exit ramp” to end the Trump era and steer the party in a new direction—especially since they can now cite the fact that “the courts have ruled he is not above the law”.

The era of Donald Trump may not end today, but the walls are certainly closing in. The unanimous Appeals Court ruling has shattered his most vital legal shield.

America is heading into two grueling years of unprecedented legal battles and political maneuvering. Donald Trump is racing against time, attempting to delay his cases until he leaves office, while his opponents accumulate ammunition from the very court rulings he fought to stop. One thing is certain: the outcome of the November 2026 elections will not only decide who holds power in Washington but also whether the 47th President becomes the first to be criminally convicted or removed from office through impeachment.