October 26, 2025 – Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
As the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) prepare to host the struggling Washington Commanders (2-5) on Monday Night Football, oddsmakers have installed Andy Reid’s squad as 13.5-point favorites. The gap in talent, coaching, and momentum is stark. Here are five airtight reasons why the Chiefs are poised to cruise to an 8-0 start.
1. Patrick Mahomes Is Playing MVP-Caliber Football—Again
The two-time MVP is completing 71.8% of his passes for 1,987 yards, 18 TDs, and just 3 INTs through seven games. Against a Washington secondary that ranks 28th in DVOA and has allowed 26.1 points per game, Mahomes is licking his chops.
“They’re giving up explosive plays like it’s 2020,” said Chiefs OC Matt Nagy. Expect Mahomes to dissect blitz-heavy looks from new DC Joe Whitt Jr., targeting Rashee Rice (42 rec, 612 yds) and rookie Xavier Worthy (6.1 YAC/rec) for chunk gains.
2. The Chiefs’ Defense Is a Turnover Machine Under Steve Spagnuolo
KC leads the NFL with 19 takeaways (12 INTs, 7 FR), including 4 pick-sixes. Washington’s Jayden Daniels, while electric, has thrown 6 INTs in his last 4 games and takes 3.1 seconds to throw under pressure—music to Chris Jones’ ears.
- Trent McDuffie has shadowed No. 1 WRs into sub-40% catch rates.
- George Karlaftis is tied for 3rd in the league with 7.5 sacks. Daniels’ 9 fumbles (4 lost) could be the dagger.
3. Washington’s Run Game Will Be Bottled Up by a Revamped Front Seven
The Commanders lean on Brian Robinson Jr. (4.8 YPC) and Daniels’ scrambles, but KC’s run defense ranks 4th in EPA/rush since Week 4.
- Nick Bolton is back healthy and flying to the football (14 tackles vs. SF).
- Mike Danna and Tershawn Wharton have combined for 11 QB hits in the last three games. Washington averages just 3.9 yards per carry on the road—expect that to drop to under 3.0.
4. Andy Reid’s Scripted Opening Drives Are Unstoppable
Reid is 26-4 in his last 30 MNF games, largely because his first 15 plays are surgical. The Chiefs have scored TDs on 6 of 7 opening drives this season. Washington’s defense allows 32% third-down conversions (30th) and has zero sacks in the first quarter all year.
“We know exactly what they’ll do in 12 personnel,” a Chiefs scout told me. “Motion, play-action, high-low Travis.” Kelce’s red-zone gravity (5 TDs) will force safeties to cheat, opening Worthy deep.
5. The Commanders Are Mentally Fragile After Three Straight Blowouts
Washington has been outscored 98-34 in the last three weeks, including a 40-7 loss to Baltimore. HC Dan Quinn’s squad has committed 11 penalties per game in losses and ranks 31st in pre-snap penalties. Arrowhead’s 76,000 fans—plus the MNF spotlight—will rattle a young roster.
“We’ve seen teams fold here,” said Mahomes post-practice. “Our job is to start fast and bury them early.” The Chiefs are 14-1 under Reid when leading by 10+ at halftime.
Prediction: Chiefs 38, Commanders 13
Mahomes throws for 300+ yards and 4 TDs, the defense forces 3+ turnovers, and KC covers the 13.5 with ease. Washington’s season teeters; Kansas City’s dynasty rolls on.
Kickoff: 8:15 PM ET, ESPN/ABC #ChiefsKingdom
